Imagine being blindfolded, led into a shooting range, and
told to hit every target. In some ways, this is exactly what the U.S. could be
doing if we refused to use targeted killings as a foreign policy tool. Lets
look at the Middle East—where most of the U.S.’ troops are currently
stationed—and what our objectives are. The first one on the list is to destroy
terrorist and insurgent groups that threaten the stability of the region.
Sounds easy right? Well, its not. In traditional warfare, soldiers wear
uniforms to distinguish them as a member of a certain armed force group. If
they’re wearing the enemy’s uniform, you shoot them. If they’re not, you don’t.
Things aren’t quite as simple anymore, and there is rarely any distinguishing
aspect that can allow soldiers to determine Taliban members from innocent
civilians. In other words, without targeted killings, troops are completely
exposed: forced into waiting for an attack in order to deduce who is the enemy.
Why it’s good
Targeted killings are flat out more efficient. Take a look
at some numbers. Within Iraq from 2003 to 2008, there occurred 92, 614 civilian
deaths from coalition forces, insurgents, or a combination of the two. On the
other hand during the same period of time, only 15, 797 Taliban members were
killed: meaning that the civilian to Taliban death ratio for 5 years of combat
was roughly 6 to 1. On the other hand, from 2000 to 2006, a greater period of time than the previous statistic, 204 named
combatants were successfully targeted, while only 115 civilians were killed, a
civilian to Taliban death ratio of 1 to 2. Sorry, that’s a lot of numbers, but
ultimately, we are looking at targeted killing as the lesser of two evils. Both
will result in civilian deaths, but less will come from the use of targeted
killings.
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Predator drone strikes are a common form of
targeted killing |
Not only this, but targeted killings provide a deterrent for
Taliban activity in general. It makes it harder to recruit
members—understandable, when they realize they’ll be blown to bits by American
forces before they can do it themselves—and it decreases the overall
effectiveness of their attacks. For instance, the National Memorial Institute
for the Prevention of Terrorism reports Israel civilian killings by the Taliban
at 21 in 2005. This was a drastic decline from 67, 45, 185, and 75 in previous
years. Deaths of Israeli soldiers had a similar declining pattern as targeted
killings increased dipping from .98 deaths per attack to .33 to .11 in 2005.
Because of these drastic cuts in Taliban effectiveness, Hroub, a Cambridge
expert, claims that the terrorists “have been seriously weakened by the
decimation of its ranks through assassination and arrest.” Many Palestine
terrorists have even demanded a stop to the targeted-killing campaign (the
nerve of the United States, attacking them, I ask you?). Coalition forces are
also protected as NATO reports that the target is successfully killed or
captured 50 to 60 percent of the time, a far greater number than regular troops
could attain and with a far smaller number of troops’ lives being sacrificed to
do so. Concluding this side of the debate, John Brennan—chief counterterrorism
advisor—agrees, stating: “Our best offense won’t always be deploying large
armies abroad but delivering targeted, surgical pressure to the groups that
threaten us” which are a low cost alternative to “expensive cumbersome
conventional forces.”
Why it’s bad
Looking back at the previous statistics, some might notice
the lack of current dates. 2005 isn’t that far back, but a lot can change in
seven years. Why the lack of data? Honestly, it’s almost impossible to find
current information and statistics regarding targeted killings. Simply put, the
government doesn’t allow it, which leads us to one of the biggest issues regarding
targeted killings: accountability. There is no specific policy in International
Law regarding targeted killings, and therefore it’s very loosely regulated. The
United States and Israel—the leading practitioners of targeted killings, both
have pretty strict regulations that include verifying the target, limiting
civilian damage and withdrawing if a less harmful alternative is available.
Sounds good right? It would be, if they were obligated to reveal any evidence
that these precautions have been followed. The Council of Foreign Relations
mentions that these governments have “refused to disclose who has been killed,
for what reason, and with what collateral consequences”. Additionally, soon
after these guidelines were set down it was discovered that “Israeli forces
[had] conducted targeted killings in violation of the Supreme Court’s
requirements”. This is a pretty big deal when you consider these countries may
be dropping a bomb the size of a small horse and accidentally obliterating a
possibly innocent civilian into a small pile of charred ash. And Russia, the
third largest user of targeted killings, has no restrictions at all. Carrying
out seek and destroy missions, it is widely accepted that “there appears to be
no restriction on the use of military force to suppress international terrorist
activity”.
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The turnover of power from President Saleh to Hadi on
February 27th marked the advent of a new level of
violence in Yemen |
Not only is there this sweet bit of news, but it also
appears that targeted killings aren’t even helpful. I know the evidence cited
above is convincing, but apparently it’s not universal. In Pakistan for instance,
targeted killings have caused a dramatic rise in violence and retaliation from
insurgents, and for a more recent news story, consider the transition of power
in Yemen from President Saleh to President Hadi. With a new round of violence
and insurgent attacks days after the transition of power, causing at least 150
deaths, the U.S.’ helpfulness is being called into question. Yemini judge
Hamoud Al-Hitar states, “Blood begets blood. Using force only strengthens the
logic and rationale of al-Qaeda. If drone strikes were a successful means for
eliminating al-Qaeda, would the Americans still be having problems now in
Afghanistan and Pakistan?” The actions of the government seem to back him up as
well, as in November in 2011, the CIA cut back a substantial portion of its
drone program after reports that such strikes on groups of militants were
harming relations with Islamaba.
The answer (or lack thereof)
Essentially, there’s no right answer. The tactic works in
some places successfully while in others the repercussions are too great to
justify its use, and there’s no rhyme or reason to why it is or isn’t effective
in different areas. This being said, probably the next biggest thing we can
look to is freedom. With countries being able to exercise this much unchecked
power over who they can assassinate, it creates a major accountability gap,
suggesting that maybe the world is not ready to hand over this responsibility
to individual countries before a standard policy is set forth. It may not seem
important now, but the next time the Russian government fails to verify its
target and plants a land mine outside your home instead of the terrorist’s next
door, you’ll be sorry.
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